Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.887825 14.559032 16.496780 18.943177 21.999401 25.762939 30.867837
2024-10-13 10.507441 12.416035 14.798858 18.081401 22.642730 29.029966 39.234744
2024-10-20 8.979489 10.900795 13.410912 17.068790 22.534793 30.945658 46.285349
2024-10-27 7.930561 9.813175 12.354378 16.215502 22.319068 32.463529 53.267091
2024-11-03 7.982651 10.175731 13.293006 18.365424 27.199397 44.125393 88.359773
2024-11-10 7.704514 10.026766 13.450920 19.311627 30.318207 54.100374 133.008141
2024-11-17 7.055124 9.267553 12.584605 18.397244 29.718003 55.726548 154.717990
2024-11-24 6.664190 8.854828 12.207736 18.260174 30.616000 61.458812 205.838168
2024-12-01 6.310965 8.467388 11.826776 18.049742 31.300744 67.066873 276.361690
2024-12-08 6.039706 8.183248 11.583071 18.051470 32.455595 74.882305 407.828367
2024-12-15 5.839828 7.994047 11.476174 18.294086 34.247228 86.306775 715.618758
2024-12-22 5.557964 7.654483 11.081758 17.909554 34.382958 91.856055 1089.375974
2024-12-29 5.336530 7.414997 10.869587 17.932027 35.788459 105.179296 2888.844625
2025-01-05 5.014423 6.992554 10.302689 17.142370 34.780055 106.667274 5212.592186
2025-01-12 4.699468 6.565462 9.698829 16.209043 33.170752 104.084156 7685.857590
2025-01-19 4.429838 6.200580 9.184717 15.420453 31.842633 102.380664 13551.193485
2025-01-26 4.553205 6.495089 9.887728 17.404244 39.595247 170.771812 NaN
2025-02-02 4.517310 6.515820 10.082913 18.274010 44.317215 241.487860 NaN
2025-02-09 4.290504 6.193970 9.597058 17.433526 42.498161 236.416259 NaN
2025-02-16 4.157719 6.030205 9.408227 17.307374 43.420140 272.475414 NaN
2025-02-23 4.026840 5.863444 9.202288 17.113620 44.034221 309.960574 NaN
2025-03-02 3.924675 5.742487 9.078709 17.115212 45.488176 376.138448 NaN
2025-03-09 3.850628 5.667756 9.041956 17.338589 48.043155 502.758220 NaN